Thursday, April 27, 2006

Gasoline boycott chain letter

Ever since 1996 whenever the price of gas has spiked at a new high I have gotten a chain letter in my email. It goes something like this "Want lower gas prices... Let's all boycott the biggest 2 producers Exxon and Mobile... We can get 300 million people to join the boycott just send this to 10 people on your email list.

The first 3 times I got this I did as suggested, sending it off to 10 of my friends. And presumably most if not all of them did the same. And yet nothing came of it. Exxon and Mobile didn't lose huge profits that year. Their stations here in town remained busy. Why? More importantly why not? Why didn't this work?

Several reasons come to mind. The internet has penetrated less than what, 60% of homes in America? (South Korea kicks our butts with 71% highspeed connections) So at most it could leverage like 160 million people. Figure the chain letter doesn't work well and you lose as much as half again (unlikely, how hard is it to forward?) that leaves 80 million. Still 80 million people boycotting the biggest producers and discussing this with their friends, family, coworkers etc. should've had some impact.

The problem is more complex and simpler than the letter assumes. More complex because gasoline producers and their system of pricing is interconnected. Gasoline at your local station could originate from any number of producers. Plus it's the total supply that affects price not just the demand at one or two major outlets.

The problem is simpler because of the people getting the email: they just didn't change their behavior, continuing to buy at whichever station was convenient.

The reality everyone in America is avoiding ( for very selfish and self-centered reasons ) is that we could easily solve this problem. The solution is no further away than the end of the arm you hold your cellphone with. Our behavior is what drives these prices. Feeding money to the terrorists who want us all dead and the corporations that could care less so long as they keep making money hand over fist.

If (and it is a huge IF) we would just work together to reduce our driving, use of electricity and other oil consuming behavior things would change quickly. Most importantly IF we stuck with it for even a short while longer than the bare minimum that SUV and Humvee owners feel we must then there would be a huge backlash throughout the oil industry and the middle eastern oil producing countries.

Can you imagine the impact of a concerted effort by Americans? Everyone car pooling, grocery shoppers forming buying and transport consortiums for each neighborhood.
Cut back on the use of plastics, switch to more efficient lighting. Don't travel unless you must. Use the phone! Telecommute a few days a week. And do all these things for like 6 months. Every oil tanker in the world would be sitting still full in port.

Our previously mentioned chain letter has already given us some statistical data about the likelihood of such an intentional and conscientious change in behavior. Unlike during World War 2 when every single American worked for the good of the whole world, the Democrat and Republican politicians have already made sure in at least one arena the first half of that old adage no longer holds true: United We Stand.

The second half of that phrase is disturbingly much closer.

Update: in case you are looking for afore mentioned letter, go here.

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